Challenge

Pixio, a mobile gaming studio based in Hong Kong, focuses on developing casual and single-player mobile games that have gained popularity among gamers worldwide. Their hit titles include Tap Tap Trillionaire, Tap Tap Evil Mastermind, Game of Earth, and Summoner’s Greed.

After Summoner’s Greed, Pixio’s flagship title, had been available for three years, the company wanted to broaden its audience and bring in new, high-value players. 

Solution

Pixio used the Pecan platform to build a highly accurate predicted lifetime value (pLTV) model that could predict new players’ lifetime value at Day 30 based on their activity by Day 2. The team then created a Facebook app event optimization campaign using custom predictive events. The campaign specifically sought to connect with players predicted to be in the top 1% of pLTV values.

Results

To validate the incremental value of this approach, Pixio conducted lift tests in partnership with Facebook. They compared the campaign optimized with Pecan’s pLTV predictions to a business-as-usual campaign optimized with purchase events. 

Testing revealed that the campaign using Pecan’s pLTV-based predictive event optimization was more successful in attracting and retaining the high-value players who fuel long-term success. The pLTV-informed campaign saw 31% higher revenue per purchase, 18% higher incremental return on ad spend, and 4% lower cost per install.

Overall, adopting a predictive approach allowed Pixio to foresee new players’ long-term value. Predicting LTV helped Pixio advertise more efficiently to identify and retain more of the most valuable players, generating greater revenue over time.